2025 F1 Mexico City Grand Prix – Top 5 Teams to Watch

Can Red Bull maintain dominance, or will Ferrari steal the spotlight in Mexico City?

The Mexico City Grand Prix returns to the calendar this October 24–26 2025 at the high-altitude Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in Mexico City. Against the backdrop of thin air, steep climbs and a stadium-style finish in the Foro Sol, five teams are shaping up as the primary threats for the checkered flag. With several teams boasting strong pasts at the venue, predictions are starting to swirl about who will take the trophy—here’s how things stack up.

1. Oracle Red Bull Racing

Why they’re a threat: Red Bull remain the most successful constructor at this circuit. They have claimed five victories in Mexico City since the event’s return in 2015. With Max Verstappen on board—who himself has won five times here—Red Bull bring experience, pace and proven altitude adaptability.
Past performance: They dominated 2021-23, with Verstappen clinching three consecutive wins.
Unique edge: Their straight-line speed and strong engine performance give them the upper hand at this circuit’s long main straight and thinner air conditions.
Prediction pick: Several race-analysis outlets continue to favour Red Bull for Mexico given the history and driver form.
Key challenge: Managing tyre heat and downforce loss at altitude—mistakes here have tripped them up before.

2. McLaren Formula 1 Team

Why they’re a threat: McLaren have emerged as strong challengers this season, combining reliability and race pace.
Past performance: While not the historic leader here, they’ve placed highly and shown strong form in late-season races.
Unique edge: Balanced chassis and excellent tyre management make them well-suited to the tricky turn sequences and stadium section of the track.
Prediction pick: Analysts highlight McLaren as the most consistent alternative to Red Bull—it’s their “best chance” weekend.
Key challenge: They still lack the outright top-end speed of Red Bull, meaning they’ll need to maximise every corner, qualifying and traffic-free run.

3. Scuderia Ferrari

Why they’re a threat: Ferrari hold recent success in Mexico, with Carlos Sainz Jr. winning it for them in 2024.
Past performance: Sainz’s 2024 triumph ended Ferrari’s long win drought at the circuit.
Unique edge: Ferrari typically bring race-winning upgrades by late season and have shown they can win under pressure.
Prediction pick: Some experts list Ferrari as the “dark horse”—capable of taking the win if qualifying falls their way.
Key challenge: Their weakness still lies in high-altitude engine performance and long-run tyre degradation; if they fall behind early, recovery might be difficult.

4. Mercedes‑AMG Petronas Formula One Team

Why they’re a threat: Mercedes have a track record of strong performance at this circuit (for example, wins in 2015, 2016 & 2019).
Past performance: Historically strong at Mexico City, though recent seasons have seen them struggle to keep pace with the very front.
Unique edge: Their car’s high downforce and strong mid-corner grip make them well-suited to the stadium section and the twisty back-stretch.
Prediction pick: Analysts suggest Mercedes could upset the usual front-runners if the weekend sets up favourably.
Key challenge: Their straight-line speed deficit at altitude remains a concern—and losing time on the long start-finish straight could hinder their race-winning chances.

5. Aston Martin Aramco F1 Team

Why they’re a threat: Aston Martin have shown strong late-season pace in recent years and bring a bold upgrade package to Mexico City.
Past performance: While not yet winners at this venue, the team have shown progression and are known for picking up performance when others struggle.
Unique edge: Their car tends to shine under lower-downforce conditions, making it a potentially good fit for the thin-air environment.
Prediction pick: Some interior team-analysts see Aston Martin as a sneaky contender; if both front-running teams falter, they’re poised to capitalise.
Key challenge: They must avoid traffic, manage qualifying position carefully and stay clear of mistakes in a highly competitive midfield.

What the Experts Are Saying

Leading forecasting outlets and race-analysts highlight Red Bull and McLaren as the top two likely winners, with Ferrari soon behind. One analytics platform noted: “Red Bull’s Mexico City dominance remains unmatched—but McLaren’s consistency this season makes them the only side able to challenge.” Given historical data and track-specific demands, most lean towards: Red Bull, McLaren, then Ferrari, with smaller chances for Mercedes or Aston Martin to upset the balance.

Why Mexico City Presents a Unique Challenge

• High altitude (≈ 2,240 m): Reduces air density, meaning less aerodynamic downforce and slower engine breathing—straight-line speed becomes vital.
• Long main straight + stadium section: Requires both engine power and mechanical grip in the tighter sections.
• Cooling & tyre stress: Thinner air makes thermal management harder; teams must adapt chassis and aero accordingly. Teams that have previously succeeded here (Red Bull, Mercedes) understand the altitude variables. Others must adapt if they wish to challenge.

The Variables to Win

Heading into the 2025 Mexico City Grand Prix, these five teams stand out as the most serious threats—with Red Bull carrying the most historical weight and McLaren the strongest runner-up case. Ferrari have the momentum of a recent winner, Mercedes carry the pedigree, and Aston Martin lurk as dark horses.

Victory here won’t simply come down to raw pace—pit strategy, altitude management, qualifying position and track adaptation will all matter. If Red Bull nail every element, they’ll be hard to beat. But McLaren’s consistency and Ferrari’s late-season push give hope for a shake-up.

Whichever team executes best under the unique Mexican conditions may walk away with one of the most coveted trophies on the calendar.